Data Backs the Benefits of Guaranteed Income

Since 2021, more than 150 guaranteed income pilots have launched across 35 states across the U.S., aiding upwards of 55,000 people. Between 2022 and 2024*, there were three in the Chicago area alone: the city’s Chicago Resilient Communities Pilot, the Cook County Promise Guaranteed Income Pilot, and Equity and Transformation’s Chicago Future Fund. Each of these pilots offered participants $500 monthly cash infusions, though the length and eligibility of the programs varied. Both Chicago and Cook County targeted low-income households who were likely to be disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. Chicago Future Fund was explicitly designed for people affected by the justice system. One thing they all had in common was the undeniable benefits participants experienced.

Equity and Transformation (EAT) conducted two rounds of its Chicago Future Fund. Launched in 2021, the first provided 30 returning citizens in West Garfield Park with $500 monthly direct cash transfers for one year. The Trust helped to fund the second round, beginning in 2023, with a $250,000 grant. It served another 100 participants in West Garfield Park, Englewood, and Austin neighborhoods. EAT released an evaluation of its second round in March. Key findings included:

• Participants report saving money and paying down debts. For example, before the first $500 payment, 76 percent of participants reported they were late paying bills the prior month. That percentage dropped to as low as 50 percent and never exceeded 60 percent during the 12-month program.
• Cash transfers did not decrease motivation for finding employment. Ninety percent of participants worked part-time or full-time for at least one month throughout the program, and 92 percent of those who experienced unemployment reported actively looking for work.
• Monthly cash improved housing stability for some. In interviews, participants noted that the monthly stipend helped them pay bills, specifically rent.
• Most participants had no interactions with police that led to arrest, booking, conviction, or incarceration. Participants arrested during the program had made minor infractions, such as traffic violations, but these cases were either thrown out or not subject to re-incarceration.

“This idea that social programs decrease motivation and discourage work has persisted. It’s a stubborn myth about poverty,” said Ashley Baber, assistant professor of Sociology and Urban Studies at Ausburg University. “The research from the Chicago Future Fund shows overwhelmingly positive results for participants across all of the variables we measured. This is the first guaranteed basic income program offered solely for formerly incarcerated participants, a group excluded from most social programs.”

The Trust funded the University of Chicago’s Inclusive Economy Lab to evaluate the Chicago Resilient Communities Pilot and Cook County Promise Guaranteed Income Pilot, collectively representing the largest public investment in unrestricted cash assistance within a single metropolitan area.

The Lab’s final reports on the pilots will be released in the fall. In the meantime, it has published a preliminary “First Look” report on Chicago’s participant demographics, needs and priorities, and baseline mental and physical health ratings. It also produced the PhotoVoice exhibit, documenting pictures participants took to capture the pilot’s impact on their lives.

“Against a backdrop where wealth inequality continues to deepen, and inflation is still hurting consumers, we want to understand how guaranteed income as a policy solution can improve peoples’ economic outlook and overall well-being,” said Carmelo Barbaro, executive director of the Inclusive Economy Lab. “Through our research, we are examining how the Chicago and Cook County pilots are impacting residents’ financial stability, economic mobility, and physical and mental health. Because these are the largest pilots in the country to date, there are a lot of eyes on Chicago. To influence policy conversations at the local and national level, we need to generate rigorous, nuanced evidence that gives us a clear picture of what these programs can accomplish.” 

These findings demonstrate the tangible and intangible benefits of guaranteed income for struggling families, which is essential to encouraging policymakers to establish permanent programs. While Chicago is not currently continuing its pilot, which was funded primarily with federal COVID-19 recovery funds, on April 8, Cook County announced it is creating a task force to determine how best to establish a permanent program. There is also a bill for a state program in this year’s Illinois General Assembly.

The proposed legislation creates the Illinois Guaranteed Income Fund, which would be housed in the Illinois Treasurer’s Office and managed by the Department of Human Services. This fund is designed to help individuals in rural and urban counties who could use extra support. It would be available for pregnant individuals or new parents within the last three years, those facing homelessness or housing instability, people who have recently been incarcerated or are supporting someone who has, and anyone enrolled in educational or vocational programs.

“Illinois spends more than $1.4 billion a year on prisons, yet nearly half of those released from state prisons return within three years, at an estimated cost of more than $150,000 for each individual. If the state can allocate $1.4 billion to incarcerate its residents, it raises the question of why similar investments are not made in efforts to reduce recidivism and support sustained freedom,” said Richard Wallace, EAT executive director.

* The Affording Survival Guaranteed Income Pilot for gender-based violence survivors in the Chicago metropolitan area launched in June 2024. It provides 60 domestic violence survivors with a guaranteed income of $1,000 a month for one year and services such as housing and economic coaching. The Center for Guaranteed Income Research (CGIR) at the University of Pennsylvania is conducting a qualitative study as part of the pilot.